$ Economicsliveactive
US defaults before 2029?
Defaults
YES 11%NO 89%
24h volume
0
total volume
3.3K
liquidity
$0
open interest
1.8K
resolution
If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
closes Mon, 01 Jan 2029 04:59:00 GMT
engine call
PASS
fair 11% vs mkt 11%
edge +0.0pt · conf 20%
Neohood Engine is offline, so this shows the market-implied probability only. Configure the engine to get a calibrated fair-value estimate and edge.
key drivers
- Market-implied price
- Liquidity & volume
what would make it wrong
- No independent estimate available
Engine offline — showing market-implied prices only.
research, not financial advice · the Neohood Engine can be wrong · verify resolution terms before trading