MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Below 15%

market80¢

YES 80%NO 20%

24h volume

total volume

6.16

liquidity

open interest

6.16

resolution

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is below 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

closes Thu, 26 Jan 2034 13:29:00 GMT

Neohood Engine○ offline

engine call

PASS

fair 80% vs mkt 80%

edge +0.0pt · conf 20%

Neohood Engine is offline, so this shows the market-implied probability only. Configure the engine to get a calibrated fair-value estimate and edge.

key drivers

Market-implied price
Liquidity & volume

what would make it wrong

No independent estimate available

Engine offline — showing market-implied prices only.

research, not financial advice · the Neohood Engine can be wrong · verify resolution terms before trading